On reading the first few pages of Garet Garrett's "The Bubble That Broke the World" (1931), available at
http://www.mises.org/store/Bubble-That-Broke-the-World-The-P437.aspx
or full text in .pdf format at:
http://www.mises.org/books/bubbleworld.pdf
it occurs to me that the primary cause of the three greatest depressions (beginning in 1873, 1929 and 2007) are all the same - a misallocation of resources due to a dramatically more efficient producer of essential goods coming on line.
In 1873, America's midwest farming, thanks to railroads and steam ships, could deliver food to Europe more economically than ever before. Leading up to 1929, America's industrial capacity delivered credit and goods to Europe more economically than ever before. Leading up to 2008, the far west (Japan, Korea and most recently China) are delivering manufactured goods to Europe and America more economically than ever before. In each case the new low cost producer, in order to have a customer able to consume all they produce, sells on credit.
This results in a world economy awash in too easily gotten capital, that promotes an escalation of greed and corruption and pyramiding financial schemes, until the bubble collapses into a depression. After a period of time, that depression not having really destroyed the broken structures, but rather just left them sputtering and broken, leads to a great war, which destroys the broken and gives birth to a new structure.
Wealth that is not disciplined by those who have a stake in it turns sour. Nations, as children, can be spoiled rotten.
As Mises studies the mechanisms by which excess money turns sour, so also must we study the means by which excess productive capacity turns sour.
Thursday, November 27, 2008
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